A total of 31,150 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 26.8 percent from 24,565 in March and down 10.9 percent from 34,949 for April last year. While last month’s total made for the slowest April since 1995 when 27,625 homes sold, it was the first month since August last year that wasn’t a record low in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988.Of the homes sold in April, 37.7 percent were foreclosure resales, up from a revised 35.4 percent in March.The median price paid for a home last month was $354,000, down 1.1 percent from $358,000 for the month before, and down 26.9 percent from $484,000 for April a year ago when the median peaked. Around half the drop in median is due to shifts in the types of homes selling, and how those homes are financed.The typical mortgage payment that home buyers committed themselves to paying last month was $1,578. That was down from $1,606 in March, and down from $2,258 for April a year ago. Adjusted for inflation, mortgage payments are back to where they were in mid 2003. They are 22.2 percent below the spring 1989 peak of the prior real estate cycle. They are 37.2 percent below the current cycle’s peak in June 2006.DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. The numbers cover all sales, new and resale, houses and condos.Indicators of market distress continue to move in different directions. Foreclosure activity is at record levels, financing with adjustable-rate mortgages is at a six-year low. Down payment sizes and flipping rates are stable, non-owner occupied buying activity is increasing, DataQuick reported.

The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six straight times since September 2007. Most analysts are predicting that the Fed will cut rates even further when it meets at the end of this month. And yet, despite a full 3% in interest rate cuts during this time, mortgage rates are significantly higher now than they were just three months ago. How is that possible? Don’t rate cuts equal lower mortgage rates? Read on as the team at YOU Magazine goes behind the headlines to show you how these Fed cuts do and don’t affect your mortgage.

Here’s the straight story: Mortgage interest rates are dictated by one thing and one thing only — the performance of mortgage-backed securities. Despite what you may have heard in the media, interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have no direct effect on long-term mortgage rates.

The True Role of the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve, our nation’s central banking system, was put in place to help avoid major financial collapses like the Depression. The Fed has two specific duties: to keep inflation in check and regulate the nation’s financial institutions. And while it has some regulatory power over how the mortgage industry operates, in its 95-year history, the Federal Reserve has never once set or reset mortgage interest rates. It simply has no authority to do so.

But, to control inflation, the Fed has several tools at its disposal, including the ability to adjust the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate, which are very different from mortgage interest rates. By increasing or decreasing these interest rates, the Fed can manage inflation and economic growth according to its financial policy. While movement in these interest rates does affect the Prime Interest Rate – which directly affect things like credit cards, home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), and adjustable-rate mortgages – long-term mortgage rates do not always follow suit.

In the following chart, mortgage rates are shown to have actually increased from March 2007 to March 2008, even though the Federal Reserve cut interests rates six consecutive times, slashing three full percentage points in the process.

What Really Moves Mortgage Rates?
Mortgage rates are set daily by individual lending institutions and are based solely on the trading activity of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), a type of bond that investors trade daily.

Without getting too technical, MBS are bonds that represent mortgages currently in place. For instance, let’s say you have a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of $200,000 at an interest rate of 6%. That loan isn’t worth anything right now, but over a 30-year period, it represents a profit of 6% or up to $12,000 every year for the bank that owns the loan, provided you make all of your payments.

However, instead of waiting 30 years to collect on that profit, your loan is “sold” to a bank where it is bundled together with other similar loans. It’s like winning the lottery and choosing the cash value prize instead of accepting full payments that are spread over 20 years. Of course, you get less money than the total value of the prize if you choose the cash upfront, but you don’t have to wait twenty years to collect it all.

This group of bundled loans then, just like a public company, is split into smaller units or bonds and sold just like stocks in a company to investors. These bonds, secured or backed by the profits from the loans, are called mortgage-backed securities. And just like stocks, investors like you and me can buy and sell them every day.

And it’s the performance of these specific bonds that lending institutions use to set mortgage rates.

The real dynamic at the heart of interest rate movement, then, is the complex relationship between stocks and bonds, supply and demand, inflation, news that moves markets, the economy, employment levels, political events, gross domestic product, and any number of other factors.

And while there exist a number of somewhat reliable economic indicators, if anyone tells you that he or she has the secret formula for predicting these movements exactly, it’s just not true. There is no magic formula, no index, no rate cuts or Fed activities that work 100% of the time.

The best you can hope for is an experienced mortgage professional who truly understands mortgage-backed securities and how they trade. He or she can utilize specific market knowledge and experience to take advantage of daily fluctuations and lock in a rate that could save you thousands of dollars throughout the life of your loan.

If you’re waiting for the Federal Reserve – or worse, the media – to create refinance or new home buying opportunities for you, don’t count on it. Call an experienced mortgage professional and get the facts.

Another classic Yogi Berra-ism is, “I never said most of the things I said.” Luckily, the Fed can’t make the same claim. This coming Tuesday, the “Meeting Minutes” or open commentary of the Fed’s last monetary policy meeting will be released to the public. If there are inflammatory comments, the market could respond quickly.

Remember, when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds have rebounded higher off of their key 50-day moving average support level, and are moving back toward the upper portion of their current trading range. This means if Bond prices continue to move toward the upper boundary of the range, we could see home loan rates improve slightly.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 04, 2008)

So the Federal Reserve cut rates again. Many mortgage applicants are calling their mortgage representative and expecting a lower interest rate. Others who have been waiting to refinance are puzzled as to why mortgage rates have not moved lower during recent 5 Fed rate cuts. In fact mortgage rates are now higher than they were before the Fed began cutting rates by in January. This is difficult to explain to many consumers who have watched a 2.5% reduction by the Fed with no benefit in mortgage rates.Is a Fed rate cut really good news for mortgage rates? The facts may be surprising. The Fed can only control the Discount Rate and the Fed Funds Rate. This is very different from mortgage rates. A mortgage rate can be in effect for 30-years, a rate that is set by the Fed can change from one day to another.Another common mistake is in thinking that 30-year Treasury bonds or 10-year Treasury notes are directly pegged to mortgage rates.Those are government securities that are backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government and have no direct effect on mortgage rates.So what are mortgage rates based on? As it turns out the answer is mortgage-backed bonds known as Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). Bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (MBS) and the trading performance of those bonds will determine the direction of mortgage rates. Finding the catalyst that causes mortgage bonds to move will give you the keys to finding out what makes mortgage rates rise or fall.We know that inflation will always be a negative for any long-term bond because it eats away at the future returns. Since the bond will pay a set amount over a long period of time, that amount will be less valuable if inflation is high. Over the past several years, one catalyst that seems to be working in the opposite direction of MBS prices is the Nasdaq and broader stock market.As bond prices rise, interest rates fall. As bond prices fall, interest rates rise. The charts accompanying this article show the Nasdaq Composite Index and the Fannie Mae 6.5% mortgage bond tend to follow paths that are almost mirror images of each other. The consistency of this behavior is astounding.As the Nasdaq moves higher, bond prices move lower causing interest rates to rise. As the Nasdaq declines, mortgage bonds benefit, causing mortgage rates to fall. Additionally, and unlike common opinion, Fed rate cuts have had virtually no direct effect on mortgage rates. Moreover, it appears that since Fed rate cuts act to stimulate the Nasdaq, they have a negative effect on mortgage rates. 

The bottom line is that it appears mortgage rates will get better if the Nasdaq sells off and will get worse if the Nasdaq rallies. So it is not necessarily what the Fed does that affects mortgage rates, it’s how the Nasdaq and broader stock market interprets the Fed’s action that will ultimately influence the direction of mortgage rates. This is because money managers and mutual fund companies typically keep funds in either stocks or bonds with very little in cash. If stocks are in favor, money is pulled from bonds, causing bond prices to drop and interest rates to rise. When stocks are being sold off, the money is then parked into bonds, which improves bond prices and causes interest rates to decline.On the chart of the Nasdaq Composite Index above, notice how the price movement higher on the Nasdaq seems to correlate to mortgage bond price deterioration (shown below) and vice versa. Once again, lower bond prices translate to higher mortgage rates and higher mortgage bond prices mean lower mortgage rates.The chart below shows how the Fannie Mae 6.5% mortgage bond has performed during the same time period. The green circles indicate Fed rate cuts and the area circled in red shows when the Fed hiked rates.

A closer look at the 5 rate cuts by the Fed this year (see chart below) shows that mortgage bond prices deteriorated after each Fed rate cut. This means that mortgage rates rose after the Fed had cut rates while many consumers were expecting their mortgage rates to decline. Worse yet are the consumers who missed the opportunity to obtain a lower rate because they mistakenly waited for the anticipated Fed action to cut short-term rates, thinking that longer-term mortgage rates would decline as a result.

Predicting the future is tough, so nothing is written in stone. Keep an eye on the Nasdaq, and keep in mind that the best rates may be behind us. But, mortgage rates are still low and could have some quick dips so make the most of them while they last. 

Here we go again…another action packed week in store, with the main event being Friday’s monthly official Jobs Report. This report is always of high interest, as it gives a good read on the health of the economy. Boiled down simply — if businesses are hiring, it means their outlook is good for the future growth of their business and the economy overall. Additionally, the more employed workers there are, the more dollars being earned that can be used to buy goods and services - also good for keeping the economy thriving.But the headline number often comes with “revisions” of past numbers — which is often the wildcard within the report. Some past revisions have actually added more jobs to the count than the current month’s number in total. And for added excitement, in advance of Friday’s official Jobs Report, gigantic payroll company ADP will release their own count on job growth on Wednesday. And while the numbers are not “official” and are sometimes seen as unreliable — the markets won’t be able to help but take notice of their findings, and may react to their release.Bottom line — volatility remains in vogue. The chart below shows how Bonds improved significantly over the past week, helping home loan rates improve as well. But remember — another Fed Cut is likely in the cards, just a few short weeks away. As we’ve discussed in the past, a Fed Rate Cut can often result in a move higher for home loan rates, as a Fed Rate Cut often spurs on spending and therefore inflation, the arch-enemy of Bonds and home loan rates. So while Bonds and home loan rates have seen nice improvement of late, they are heading towards both a technical “ceiling of resistance”, as well as a March 18th Fed meeting that could cause rates to worsen. If you - or one of your friends, family members, neighbors or coworkers - have been considering a refinance or purchase, feel free to reach out to me to discuss taking advantage of current low rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 29, 2008)

“I DON’T MEASURE A MAN’S SUCCESS BY HOW HIGH HE CLIMBS…BUT HOW HIGH HE BOUNCES WHEN HE HITS BOTTOM.” General George S. Patton And the General himself would certainly consider Bonds to be a success last week, as they moved lower to hit a technical “bottom” at the 200-day Moving Average, but then bounced significantly higher throughout the course of the week, helping fixed home loan rates improve by about .25 to .375%.What caused all the activity? Remember that weak economic news tends to be bad for Stocks, but good for Bonds and home loan rates, as money flows out of Stocks and into Bonds. And last week had its share of weak economic news, combined with testimony before Congress by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.The news included higher wholesale inflation with the Producer Price Index (PPI) jumping to its highest level since October 2004 on surging energy and food prices. But price inflation on the producer or wholesale side can’t always get passed directly on to the consumer on the retail side. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) reading showed consumer inflation to be higher, but just slightly, as expected. The PCE is the Federal Reserve’s most highly watched measure of inflation, and the current overall rate of year-over-year inflation at 2.2% does remain just above the Federal Reserve’s comfort zone for consumer inflation.And speaking of the Fed, Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before Congress last week, making comments that prompted Stock investors to sell off and move money over into Bonds. The Bond market also enjoyed “dovish” comments made by Gentle Ben about inflation and the recent aggressive cuts made by the Fed, and his testimony was largely responsible for the improvement in Bonds and home loan rates. But read on, and learn how the next official Fed Meeting and Rate Decision on March 18th could impact home loan rates…it might surprise you.THE ECONOMIC STIMULUS PLAN HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE HEADLINES…BUT DO YOU KNOW HOW IT WILL IMPACT YOU? LEARN ABOUT REBATE CHECKS AND MORE IN THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!

After a closed market on Monday, all of the coming week’s economic reports will be delivered on Wednesday and Thursday - but don’t expect that any volatility will be limited to those days.The most recent read on inflation will come via the Consumer Price Index, being reported on Wednesday alongside the latest Housing Starts and Permits data. And of particular interest - the “Meeting Minutes” from the last Federal Reserve meeting will be released as well. These Minutes give the inside commentary between members - and remember, Dallas Fed President Richard “Loose Lips” Fisher was not in agreement with the most recent cut to the Fed Funds Rate. His seemingly uncontrollable remarks regarding his concerns over inflation have rocked the markets of late, with Mortgage Bonds losing 187 basis points since his tirade on February 7th - that translates into about .375% higher for home loan rates. Bottom line - the inflation data and Fed Meeting Minutes could be real market movers. Since inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond, if the news of the week continues to reek of inflation - this could spell more bad news for Bonds and home loan rates.

Chart: Fannie Mae 5.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 15, 2008)

“CUTS LIKE A KNIFE, BUT IT FEELS SO RIGHT” Bryan Adams And financial pros will tell you it’s wise to never try and catch a falling knife. Seems like decent advice in general - but in the financial world, it means that when the price of a Stock or Bond is in the midst of a severe decline, be very cautious about stepping in to buy…even if it feels so right because the price starts to look cheap. That’s because when prices declines sharply, it often gets even worse, making it hard to call the bottom. That’s why many investors, who attempt to buy on the way down, say the feeling cuts like a knife. And over the past week - Bonds have been dropping much like a knife, and home loan rates have risen by about .25% across the board.And speaking of sharp objects, Cupid’s arrows might have been flying around everywhere last week - but little love came calling for the Bond market. First, Retail Sales for January were far better than expected - which was good news for Stocks, but as money flowed into Stocks, pulled money out of Bonds and caused Bond prices to move lower. Next, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke gave it to us straight from the heart, as he testified that the Fed would keep the door open to more rate cuts, which worried Bond Traders about the risk of more inflation ahead. And unlike the media seems to believe, cuts to the Fed Funds Rate generally cause home loan rates to rise, not decline. Why? Because Fed Rate Cuts can spur on more inflation, as it becomes less expensive to finance business and personal purchases. And as a result, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return provided by a Bond - so in the face of inflation, Bond prices fall, and home loan rates rise.Finally, Moody’s credit rating agency downgraded FGIC - one of the very largest Bond insurers in the world. This is another concern for Bonds, as the downgrades of Bond insurers in turn threaten the ratings of the Bonds they insure. If the added safety from insurance on Bonds is in doubt, the yield or rate on those underlying Bonds must increase to compensate investors for the additional risk. All in all - a tough week for Bonds and home loan rates - read on to find what’s in store for the week ahead.AND DON’T MISS THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW - ALERTING YOU TO IRS SCAMS, TO WHICH EVEN THE SAVVIEST HAVE FALLEN PREY.

By Paul Jackson

President Bush on Wednesday signed H.R. 5140, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, making official a temporary boost to both conforming and FHA loan limits. The new law boosts the GSE conforming limit to as much as $729,750 through the end of this year, and also raises FHA lending limits to the same level for high-cost areas.

“I know many Americans are worried about meeting their mortgages,” President Bush said prior to signing the bill. “My administration is working to address this problem.” Bush cited HOPE NOW and the recently announcedProject Lifeline initiative as examples of ongoing work by the administration to address the housing crisis.

A White House-produced fact sheet covering the new growth package is available here.

The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development now has 30 days to publish a database of house prices that will be essential in determining which markets get access to the new ‘jumbo conforming’ or ‘expanded FHA’ loan products.

Of course, that could prove to be bit of a problem in and of itself, given that HUD doesn’t currently independently gather or otherwise publish home price data. Bankrate’s Holden Lewis was on this right from the start; he and I had chatted briefly on the matter when Congress first passed the bill:

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, or OFHEO, compiles periodic indexes of home prices. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac use the OFHEO data each November to update the next year’s conforming limit.

The Federal Housing Finance Board and the National Association of Realtors both collect and publish home prices. The FHA takes information from both entities to calculate the FHA limits for each metro area.

Congress could have pegged the conforming and FHA limits to data collected by OFHEO, the Federal Housing Finance Board or the Realtors. But it didn’t. Instead, the law says: “The secretary of Housing and Urban Development shall publish the median house prices and mortgage principal obligation limits … for all areas as soon as practicable.” The law gives HUD 30 days to publish the database of house prices.

The simplest solution would be for HUD to use the same house price information it uses to calculate FHA loan limits. But a HUD spokesman says: “We have not yet determined if the same data will be used to make the new calculations.”

That leaves lenders in the dark until HUD makes a decision.

While price designations aren’t yet known, a few industry sources close to the process have suggested that the new conforming limits won’t be as broadly applied as many might expect; just 15 counties in California might be designated as eligible for the loan limit increase, for example.

That’s not the only grey area out there, of course — there’s also the as-of-yet unclear issue of TBA trading in the secondary market that will need to be settled, something HW has covered often recently. (The unconfirmed word from our sources today is still that SIFMA wants to keep the new ‘jumbo conforming’ loans out of TBA pools.)

It’s also unclear exactly how the GSEs will price the newly-conforming loans, given that neither Fannie nor Freddie have experience underwriting within the jumbo mortgage market.

Similarly, it isn’t exactly clear what the initial underwriting criteria will be, although most expect it to at least sit close to existing ‘traditional conforming’ guidelines — if not ending up more restrictive. “OFHEO has already gone on record saying that jumbo loans are more risky, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the underwriting guidelines end up being tighter than what you’d see for usual conforming products,” said one executive at a large lender, who asked not to be identified.

President Bush is expected to sign the highly anticipated stimulus package today. This means that HUD will have 30 days or less to come up with the median prices for areas throughout the country, which may then cause an increase to the conforming limit in those markets. As you know our analysts have worked very hard to provide you with a jump start estimate of what HUD may do.

H.R. 5140 — Increased Loan Limits

Although HUD has 30 days from the final passage of the legislation to provide their official loan limits for your area, the estimated data below can help you get a major head start on your competition! Our team of analysts have researched and referenced a number of trusted sources to compute this data and provide you reasonable estimates of the new loan limits in your area.Most of the estimated loan limits in this exclusive chart are listed by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). If you are not familiar with what counties are included in each MSA code below, please visithttps://entp.hud.gov/idapp/html/hicostlook.cfm, where you can search by State.NOTE: THESE ARE NOT THE OFFICIAL GUIDELINES FROM HUD. THE OFFICIAL CHART OF LOAN LIMITS WILL NOT BE DELIVERED BY HUD UNTIL 30 DAYS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LEGISLATION.